Know Monsoon 2024 Arrival (Coming) Date in India [State Wise] – Check Rain Start Date in Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Wb, Gujarat, Rajasthan.

Monsoon Predicted for India in 2024, Check state-wise Rain Start Date :

This year, “sufficiently good rains” are predicted for the country’s south, west, and north-west, while the main monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will get enough rainfall.

• A new heat wave predicted to start over Northwest India on May 16, 2024.
• Over the southern peninsula of India, there is expected to a wet spell with sporadic heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds until May 17th, 2024.
• Up to May 14, 2024, a wet spell with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds is quite likely to across East and Central India.
• Around May 19, 2024, the Southwest Monsoon is extremely likely to move into the South Andaman Sea, certain areas of the Southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands.

Weather Systems and Forecast & Warnings:

• Around May 19, 2024, the Southwest Monsoon is extremely likely to expand into the South Andaman Sea, certain areas of the Southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands.
• A trough extends from the cyclonic circulation across South Interior Karnataka to northwest Madhya Pradesh at lower tropospheric levels. Lower tropospheric levels above the Comorin region are home to another cyclonic circulation. Influenced by them:

1. Over the next five days, there is a good chance of isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall along with thunderstorms, lightning, and squally winds (40–60 kmph) over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada. On May 13 and 14, there is also a good chance of thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30–40 kmph) over the Gujarat region. There will probably isolated hailstorm activity across Madhya Pradesh on May 13 and 14, as well as over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada on May 13.
2. On May 13, 2024, there will most likely isolated, intense rainfall over Madhya Maharashtra.
3. Dispersed to Over the next seven days, there is a good chance of fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and squally winds (40–50 kmph). They are most likely to affect Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands; Odisha on the 13th and 14th; Gangetic West Bengal on the 13th and On May 13 and 14, 2024, there was isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall over Bihar and Jharkhand, along with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30–40 kmph). On May 13, 2024, there is a good chance of isolated, heavy rainfall over Odisha, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim.

 

For more details regarding Monsoon Arrival Date, kindly refer: mausam.imd.gov.in

Past Days Weather Forecast:

Over East and Central India till May 14 and South Peninsular India until May 17, 2024, thunderstorms, lightning, gusty winds, and hailstorm predicted to have an impact and action advised.

Impact expected:

• Strong winds or hail can harm standing crops, horticulture, and plantations.
• Hail may harm both humans and animals in open areas.
• Strong winds have partially damaged structures that are prone to damage.
• Huts and kutcha houses/walls have little damage.
• Flying items are possible.

Action suggested:

•  Remain indoors, shut doors and windows, and try not to go anywhere.
•  Seek out safe havens; avoid hiding behind trees.
•  Avoid leaning on concrete walls or lying on concrete floors.
•  Unplug any electronic or electrical appliances.
•  Quickly exit any bodies of water.
•  Steer clear of everything that conducts electricity.

Past years Monsoon Predictions VS Actual:

Forecast verification for the recent five years (2019-2023):

Year	Actual	Forecast
2019	June 8	June 6
2020	June 1	June 5
2021	June 3	May 31
2022	May 29	May 27
2023	June 8	June 4
2024	May 31	–

 

“In fact, the monsoon can arrive in Kerala on schedule or a few days early on June 1st.”  said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General Meteorology, IMD. With the exception of 2015, IMD’s operational estimates of when the monsoon will begin over Kerala during the previous 19 years (2005–2023) have proven to be accurate.

In contrast to the IMD prediction of May 30, the monsoon start over Kerala in 2015 occurred on June 5.

The six predictors that IMD developed in-house are used in the models. These include minimum temperatures over north-west India, a pre-monsoon rainfall peak over the south peninsula, outgoing longwave radiation over the South China Sea and Southwest Pacific Ocean, and lower and upper troposphere zonal wind over the equatorial southeast and northeast Indian Ocean.

SWM (Southwest Monsoon) had consistently arrived in May from 2006 to 2011, and then in 2017–18, 2022, throughout the previous 20 years. The monsoon arrived at its earliest point in history on May 23, 2009, and again on May 26, 2006.

Monsoon 2024 Arrival, Expected dates:

According to the Indian Meteorological Department’s projection, Kerala will experience the southwest monsoon one day early. providing a break from the intense heat wave that affecting the southern peninsula.

With a forecast error of ±4 days, the southwest monsoon predicted to arrive in Kerala on May 31 this year.

June 1 is typically when the southwest monsoon arrives over the coast of Kerala. On May 29, 2022, the southwest monsoon did, nevertheless, reach the Kerala coast; nonetheless, the IMD described it as an almost usual arrival.

Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at IMD, stated, “This is not early.”

“It’s almost normal, since the monsoon normally begins over Kerala on June 1st,” he added.

The Southwest Monsoon anticipated to move into the South Andaman Sea, the Nicobar Islands, and a portion of the Southeast Bay of Bengal on May 19, according to a statement from IMD.

Monsoon Arrival Date (Expected) : 31 May 2024

For more details regarding Monsoon Arrival Date, kindly refer: mausam.imd.gov.in